Mr. Speaker, there have been a number of fiscal developments since I presented my budget speech in February, and I would like to provide Members with an update on the government's fiscal position and outlook. In February, I forecasted a $77 million deficit for 2003-04 and warned that we could hit our federally imposed borrowing limit of $300 million by the end of 2004-05. I also pointed out that solving our fiscal problems was not fully within our control as, ultimately, our fiscal health depends on federal investment and support and on equitable resource revenue sharing.
At the time of the budget speech, I also renewed our government's commitment to make the investments necessary to advance our economic and social goals and to ensure NWT residents benefit from resource development. At the same time we recognized that we were going to have to demonstrate that our government was operating as efficiently and economically as possible.
Mr. Speaker, we are still on track with our spending and our own-source revenue forecasts contained in the February budget. Our medium and long-term outlook has not changed. However, there are some issues relating to our funding from the federal government, in particular population, that have created additional uncertainty about our immediate fiscal situation.
A principal area of concern is with the final 2001 census results. The money we receive through our formula financing agreement with the federal government is adjusted for relative population growth and so census counts are extremely important to us. Equally important are the results of Statistics Canada's coverage studies - their estimates of the number of people missed in the census. At the time of the budget we did not have information on what Statistics Canada's census under-coverage adjustments would be, so we based our revenue forecasts on the best population numbers we had at the time. These were based on our own survey of census under-coverage, which indicated that the 2001 census missed over 10 percent of our population. Since we made that revenue forecast, Statistics Canada has published their initial under-coverage estimates for the Northwest Territories as only 7.25 percent. We think this is far too low and we are working hard to convince Statistics Canada to make changes needed to improve their study. There are many millions of dollars at stake over these census under-coverage numbers.
We have recently learned that there is even more uncertainty about the census coverage numbers. On May 29th we were informed that the preliminary coverage numbers released in March contain an error. At this time, Statistics Canada does not know the impact of this error nor when they will release corrected preliminary numbers.
Last month I identified another area of revenue uncertainty - one related to the calculation of tax effort in the formula financing agreement. This issue is being resolved with a positive impact on our fiscal situation.
Our revenue problems are compounded by the fact that the formula financing agreement, over the last 15 years, has been subjected to federally-imposed restraints, cuts and adjustments that leave it inadequate to meet our needs. In addition, the revenues from the formula financing agreement have become much more volatile and unpredictable, making planning extremely difficult and forcing us to rethink our plans every few months. This cannot continue.
Mr. Speaker, we live in a territory whose economy is strong. We have even more dramatic economic growth on the horizon. Jobs are abundant and unemployment rates are at an all time low. Despite all this, our territorial government is facing large ongoing deficits which, if not addressed in a timely manner, will lead to fiscal crisis.
To respond to these circumstances, we have a two-part action plan that we have already put in motion.
First, we have taken actions to address our need for more revenue. Our revenue actions started with the commitment the Premier obtained from the Prime Minister that the adequacy of the formula financing agreement would be addressed. On May 12th I met with Finance Minister John Manley as follow-up to the Prime Minister's commitment. Mr. Manley's understanding and support are essential if we are to solve our fundamental fiscal problems. I was extremely encouraged by the understanding of our issues that Minister Manley demonstrated and his willingness to review the situation. He also understands the need to address these revenue issues as soon as possible.
With the encouragement and understanding we have received from Minister Manley, we are moving forward with confidence that we can make substantive progress on improving our revenue outlook through a fair deal on resource revenue sharing and a more responsive and appropriate level of funding in a renegotiated formula financing agreement. Achieving positive results in these negotiations is absolutely essential. Without more equitable fiscal arrangements, we cannot meet our obligations to provide adequate programs and services to our residents while maintaining fair and competitive taxation levels.
But there is no easy fix to the fiscal problem.
We are continuing to press for appropriate adjustments to the census under-coverage numbers. We understand that Statistics Canada is examining a number of issues related to the preliminary numbers raised by the GNWT. Although we don't know what the ultimate result will be of the correction of the errors or the review of our proposals, there is a potential for good news in Statistics Canada's review, but there is also a possible downside. Until we know the final numbers, the population issue will make fiscal planning an uncertain science and this must be reflected in our fiscal management.
The longer-term issues I identified in my budget are still outstanding. It will take time to renegotiate and implement the formula financing agreement. It will take time to negotiate a fair deal on resource revenue sharing, and we must also take time to ensure we doing our part by having fair and competitive tax and fee systems.
Getting this time will be a challenge and leads us to the second part of our action plan.
The second set of actions we are taking concerns expenditures. We must do everything reasonable to manage our spending in both the short and long term, while making sure we do not compromise our fundamental social and economic goals and objectives. We must still protect those most vulnerable, we must assist those able to become more independent to do so, and we must invest in those who represent our future.
In the short term, we are constrained in the expenditure savings we can achieve by the fact that projects are underway and commitments have been made. We are also constrained by the time required to bring about substantive expenditure reform responsibly. But savings can be achieved. For 2003-2004 we have committed to save $20 million out of our existing budget. Ten million dollars of this will come from internal restraint measures each department is instituting in the areas of travel, administration, contracts and other discretionary services. These measures have been designated to minimize impacts on clients, employees and the general public. Members will also see these reductions reflected in the supplementary appropriations bill I will submit this session. A further $4 million will come from restrictions on supplementary appropriations and $5 million more from targeted restraint that is still in the process of being identified.
In the longer term we are committed to more substantive and structural reform to achieve efficiency and effectiveness gains in how we are organized, in how our programs are designed and delivered, and generally how we do business. Development of these reform measures has been underway for several months through the work of a number of internal task teams who have been looking at everything from how we are organized, to which programs we deliver, at what level of service, to how we approach capital planning and investing. Most of these task teams are reporting over the next few months. Their recommendations will be considered by this government as well as the new 15th Legislative Assembly.
This action plan is a reasonable and responsible approach to the fiscal uncertainties we face. These are fiscal issues that are not our making. The culprit is a fiscal arrangement with the federal government that has been eroded by unilateral federal actions over the years, a fiscal arrangement that is not responsive to the realities in the Northwest Territories, a fiscal arrangement that creates an imbalance between the government which bears the costs of resource development and the government which reaps the benefits.
It is imperative that the federal government respond proactively to us to address these fiscal issues. The problems and solutions have been, and continue to be, within federal control. We cannot expect NWT residents to deal with these issues alone. The Prime Minister and Finance Minister Manley have the opportunity to show us they share our vision of a strong and self-reliant Northwest Territories, and we are confident that they will respond. For our part, we must ensure that we are doing not only our fair share to address our needs, but are vigilant and aggressive in keeping our needs front and centre with our federal counterparts.
The economy of the Northwest Territories is strong and will only get stronger. Now we must rebalance how the federal and territorial governments share the costs and benefits of economic growth. Thank you.
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