Thank you, Madam Chair. Madam Chair, let me try and answer it, and I am sure the Member will let me know if we need to bring the witnesses in. There are finance witnesses in the witness room.
Madam Chair, yes, it's 174 -- I don't have that number in front of me, but it does sound approximately correct from my recollection. But I think the question is really getting at what that does to our fiscal situation. And, yes, having an over hundred -- unexpectedly over $100 million in costs associated with the floods takes out the surplus that we had been projecting for 2022-2023 and puts us into a situation where we are likely to be in a -- well, where we are expecting now to be in a deficit situation. So that does mean that we wouldn't be in compliance ultimately, if that's the case, with the Fiscal Responsibility Policy. However, you'll recall that there is a couple -- really, a period of two years of lag time to catch back up. So we may not -- it may actually not necessarily -- it means we don't have the surplus, but we may not be in noncompliance.
As for the longer-term projection, we are still expecting, because we do get a significant amount of that refunded by the federal government under the Disaster Assistance Policy, that does catch us back up. And so by 2023-2024, we would be back to anticipating a surplus in the amount of $131 million. Again, given that we would be, you know, I'm expecting that we won't get the money for disaster assistance this fiscal, or certainly not the bulk of it, and so then we wind up catching back up.
There's also a significant amount of catchup happening under the territorial formula finance policy because of all the costs that provinces were paying out during COVID. That reflects in terms of what we then get under the TIF. So, yes, this year definitely is being impacted but we do catch up. Thank you, Madam Chair.