This is page numbers 3905 – 3976 of the Hansard for the 17th Assembly, 5th Session. The original version can be accessed on the Legislative Assembly's website or by contacting the Legislative Assembly Library. The word of the day was year.

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Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

Some Hon. Members

Agreed.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

The Chair

The Chair Daryl Dolynny

Thank you, committee.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

The Chair

The Chair Robert Bouchard

Thank you, committee. Page 5-9, information item, revenue summary. Any questions? Mr. Bromley and then Ms. Bisaro.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

Bob Bromley

Bob Bromley Weledeh

Thank you, Mr. Chair. I’d just like to start off here with the first line, the grant from Canada, $1.28 billion. What is the agreement going forward? I keep hearing how we’re sweating and the Minister says our population is declining; we’re losing our federal grant. It’s up considerably, I think about $90 million this year, despite our declining population.

So what’s the situation and how long is the agreement in place for and what trends can we expect to the extent that we know what’s happened? Thank you.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

The Chair

The Chair Robert Bouchard

Thank you, Mr. Bromley. Minister Miltenberger.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

Michael Miltenberger

Michael Miltenberger Thebacha

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The biggest increase, of course, is the $67 million that we are getting added to our A

base from devolution negotiations. I’ll ask the deputy if he wants to add more detail about the further particulars. Thank you.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

The Chair

The Chair Robert Bouchard

Thank you, Minister Miltenberger. Deputy Minister.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

Aumond

Thank you, Mr. Chair. The Territorial Formula Financing Grant increased by approximately $88 million in ’14-15, and of that, $67 million was due to the adjustment to our base with devolution and $39 million was due to the escalation of the grant of about 2.9 percent.

The issue, really, is the population growth. Our growth, relative to the growth in Canada, is a big factor in escalating our grant and right now our population is stagnant and we’re not growing at a rate equal to the rate of the rest of the country. As a result, it has an adverse impact on our rate of growth. So, we are predicting, based upon what’s happening with our population and some other factors, including provincial local spending, is that our grant, our base will grow roughly between 2 and 2.5 percent a year. Thank you.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

The Chair

The Chair Robert Bouchard

Thank you, Ms. Bisaro. Oh, sorry, Mr. Bromley, it’s been a long day. Sorry.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

Bob Bromley

Bob Bromley Weledeh

Thank you, Mr. Chair. So we’re going to grow 2 to 3 percent in our base and our population is stable to declining. That seems like not too shabby a deal. In fact, it seems more positive to me and everybody should be sitting in such a pretty situation.

I just noticed the Canada Health Transfer, again a huge increase here, something like $10 million from the main estimates last year. What’s going on with that one? Thank you.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

The Chair

The Chair Robert Bouchard

Thank you, Mr. Bromley. Minister Miltenberger.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

Michael Miltenberger

Michael Miltenberger Thebacha

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The estimates are higher. There was a formula change from an equal per capita, total allocation cash and tax transfer to an equal per capita cash allocation, and to put that into simple English, I’ll turn to the deputy. Thank you.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

The Chair

The Chair Robert Bouchard

Thank you. Deputy Minister Aumond.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

Aumond

Thank you, Mr. Chair. So, as Minister Miltenberger has stated, they recalculated how they are going to calculate the CHT transfers for provinces and territories and it went per capita transfer, tax transfer, which for ourselves and Alberta was beneficial. So we have what appears to be a one-time escalation of about $10 million on the CHT and we don’t expect that that’s going to continue, starting next year. We know that CHT will grow after this year by roughly about 6 percent a year until, I believe, about ’16-17 or ’17-18. I can’t remember which year that is, and then it will

increase. As per the announcement last year by the federal government, it will increase by a nominal GDP, or a floor of 3 percent.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

The Chair

The Chair Robert Bouchard

Thank you, Mr. Aumond. Mr. Bromley.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

Bob Bromley

Bob Bromley Weledeh

That’s obviously positive in the short term and negative in the long term since we know that our health costs are growing at, well, this year 8 percent, and that’s not atypical, but it certainly does serve to cushion the increase we see in our health budget this year.

Just looking at personal income tax, again I see a very significant increase there, and again, the Minister has been on about some serious differences there. Perhaps he’s projecting that for the next fiscal year.

Again, can I get an explanation there? I see we’ve dropped in our corporate income tax here a bit as that is what we do from time to time, and especially given our policies where these mines, for example, can write off all of their costs right away so they never make a profit that we see, but maybe I can get a bit of an explanation there too.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

Aumond

If we look at for the year ’13-14, which, really, the taxation revenue that we’re receiving this year is based on the 2012 tax year, we’re looking at a personal income tax drop of about $18 million over what we originally estimated last year, and in ’14-15, based upon that, we’re looking at a personal income tax drop of about a further $38 million. Then it should start to level off after that and we will start to see some stabilization, hopefully, but that is what we’re looking at this year, remainder of this year and for going into ’14-15.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

Bob Bromley

Bob Bromley Weledeh

I wasn’t jumping back and forth between rows enough to completely follow that, but I guess I did understand that the estimate for this year of $105 million, roughly, was about $38 million lower than expected, and I’m wondering how we could possibly make such a high projection there. Is that us who do that? Is that the GNWT that makes that projection?

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

Aumond

For PIT, personal income tax, we get an estimate from the federal government that’s based on what they’ve seen in previous years based upon what they see happening with personal taxation across the country. Before that we were looking at an estimate much higher and then in December we got some federal estimates back that national taxable incomes were lowered in December based on the 2012 actual returns that were received to date. In addition to that – and we went back to 2005 to check on this, because it was the first time since we’ve been keeping detailed records that consistent – with that is the number of tax filers in the Northwest Territories has declined from 2011, causing the NWT share of total estimate to decrease, so our 2012 actual returns lower the

2012 estimate. That’s the reason for the decline in the estimate, but the federal government collects personal and corporate income taxes on our behalf, much like they do for almost every other jurisdiction, with the exception of Quebec, and for corporate income tax for Alberta they collect the tax and they provide the estimates on that taxation revenue back to the jurisdictions

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

Bob Bromley

Bob Bromley Weledeh

Thanks for that additional information. I recall in the 16th Assembly we had a

similar sort of thing. Now, we may not have had the number of taxpayers go down, and it sounds like that’s part of what’s happening here. But we certainly did have that same sort of proportionate decrease. I believe it was in, actually, corporate income tax if I remember rightly. Are there further adjustments that will be made to these numbers? Is this just the update and we can expect more updates?

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

The Chair

The Chair Robert Bouchard

Thank you, Mr. Bromley. Minister Miltenberger.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

Michael Miltenberger

Michael Miltenberger Thebacha

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As we have indicated previously, the intent is to move away from relying on the federal projections and we’re going to start using our own five-year rolling average which we think will give us a more consistent and realistic number, but I’ll ask the deputy if he wants to add anything further.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

The Chair

The Chair Robert Bouchard

Thank you, Minister. Deputy Minister Aumond.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

Aumond

Thank you. As the Minister said, for corporate income tax we’re going to use a five-year rolling average. That’s probably a little bit more realistic and a little bit more conservative and gives us some downside mitigation. For personal income tax, because there has been such a big adjustment, we’re going to wait another year and see what happens with the number of filers, and we’ll get a better understanding in May, when we actually get the more detailed data from Canada on what happened with the 2012 tax year, to try and figure out what’s actually happening.

Certainly on the corporate side, we’ve always been subject to a lot of volatility from year to year. We’re going to take a more, I think, prudent, conservative approach.

On the personal income taxes, this is the first time we’ve seen this and it could just as easily come back. We don’t know, so we want to take a little bit more wait and see, and see if we can dig into the data and see if we can see what’s happening there. But on the corporate side, we’re changing the approach where we’re just going to go with the five-year average, as the Minister said, instead of relying completely on the federal estimate.

Committee Motion 14-17(5): Deferral Of Minerals And Petroleum Resources Activity, Defeated
Consideration in Committee of the Whole of Bills and Other Matters

The Chair

The Chair Robert Bouchard

Thank you, deputy minister. Next on my list I have Ms. Bisaro, followed by Mr. Dolynny.